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AOL - The Greased Pig of Search is About to Get
Caught
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by Jim Hedger (c) 2005 , StepForth News Editor, StepForth
Placement Inc.
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The greased pig of the search world is about
to get caught. Apparently the pig is a prized ham after all.
For the past three months, AOL has been acting like the
greased pig of the search engine world. Each of the other major players has been
trying to capture a piece of AOL but according to the breathless reporting in
publications such as the Wall St. Journal, Search Engine Watch, CNet News and
WebProNews, AOL has been playing each against the other. It is much easier to
understand the motivation of the four-legged greased pigs than it is to figure
out the game of negotiated brinksmanship AOL is playing. In the traditional
country fair version of the game, the greased pigs do not wish to be caught.
When such sport takes place in a boardroom owned by the greased pig however, it
is somewhat reasonable for participants to assume said greased pig actually
wishes to be caught. In the case of AOL's game of greased pig, appearances have
often been deceiving and experiences will change during actual game play.
Nevertheless, the greased pig is about to be caught and when it does, a series
of events will eventually affect nearly 80% of US Internet users.
Of all the major search entities, AOL has one of the
longest, most interesting and convoluted stories. It still has one of the
biggest membership bases of any entity on the Internet with an estimated 97
millïon. It is owned and operated by the board of the Time Warner publishing
empire. AOL purchased Time Warner in early 2000 in a legendary stöck transfer
that took place weeks before the dot-com crash removed much of the value of
those shares.
The major search engines wanted AOL outright but
eventually found it wasn't for sale as an entity. In late October and early
November, reports surfaced suggesting Yahoo, Microsoft and Google were each
trying to buy AOL away from Time Warner. Observers might have thought themselves
safe in assuming the Time Warner board might approve the outright sale of the
AOL arm, which has been a drag on overall operations since the firms merged in
2000. In September 2003, the company officially known as AOL Time Warner moved
to distance itself from its underperforming partner by dropping the name AOL
from its corporate identity.
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At the time of the transfer, AOL was the
largest Internet Service Provider in the United States but a series of mistakes,
combined with the sudden downturn in the Internet economy pushed AOL to near
obscurity in the eyes of Time Warner and most long-term Internet users. Remember
the days when AOL sent hundreds of millïons of unsolicited free AOL CDs to
homes around the world promising a month of Free AOL access. Many, if not most,
of those CDs ended up as drink coasters, Christmas tree ornaments, unpredictable
Frisbees, or, home fashioned ninja throwing stars.
Like many of the geniuses that coded before them, some of
most important contributions AOL's Netscape team has made to the Internet can
nevër be balanced in a profït and loss ledger. Before it bought Time Warner,
AOL purchased the beleaguered Netscape web browser but ended up alienating loyal
Netscape users by redesigning the browser in its own image in the disastrous
Netscape 6.0 release in November 2000. While the 6.0 version was a resounding
flop, it stands out as the first major public open-source application and is
considered the predecessor of the massively popular Firefox browser. One of the
least appreciated assets owned by AOL was the group of open-source programmers
who developed Netscape and moved on to förm the independent Mozilla Foundation.
Again, like many of those that coded before them, the
power of AOL's reach was grievously underappreciated because the conditions to
exercise that power had not been realized. America had not gone broadband as
quickly as expected and the massive migration towards digital convergence has
until this year been treated as a dot-bomb pipe dream by mainstream corporate
investors. Nöw that over 75% of US Internet users are accessing via big-pipes,
video and audio content (stuff folks will pay for) is nöw easily served. In
short, investors see a way to easily and inexpensively get products to
consumers. As anyone with a sense of history will tell ya, those who invest in
transportation of goods or people tend to make a heck of a lot of money.
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Sensing the major shifts taking place in
today's publishing sector, billionaire corporate raider Carl Ichan who currently
controls 2.8% of Time Warner's shares has set his sights on Time Warner chief
Richard Parsons. He wants Parsons out and is expected to be planning the
break-up of the empire if he can mount a successful hostile challenge against
the Board of Directors. The pending shareholders fight might be the biggest
reason Time Warner's board seems to have backed down from selling AOL or even
allowing another firm to purchase a stake in it, even after months of
negotiations with MSN, Google and Yahoo. The Board was acting like a greased
pig, not in reaction to the competitive bids from the Big3 but in reaction to
the competitive challenge Ichan is mounting against Parsons. AOL is simply worth
too much in the near future to sell off or compromise today, even if it would
have provided a massive return for investors.
Earlier this month, Ichan warned the Time Warner board he
would hold them personally responsible if AOL was sold at too low a price.
Shortly thereafter, AOL changed its tune and took itself off the open market,
later saying that it would not even sell a stake in the company.
At the end of the day however, all greased pigs must be
caught and AOL, no matter how wily is no exception. The Wall Street Journal
reported today that AOL and Microsoft are about to sign a deal that will remove
Google from AOL's search page in mid-2006 and replace it with MSN generated
results and paid advertising.
AOL and Google have been partners in search since 2002
when Google provided the vast majority of search results seen on almost every
search engine, including rival Yahoo. Under the present arrangement, AOL retains
approximately 80% of ad revenue generated by AdWords advertising displayed
across the AOL network. That agreement, set to expire in mid-2006, was good for
about $300 millïon in revenues for AOL last year.
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A deal between AOL and MSN will give the two firms access to
over 140 millïon subscribed members, making it the largest online content and
advertising alliance in the world. Yahoo has approximately 122 millïon
registered users per month and Google has about 86 millïon. Though discussions
about selling a stake in AOL are no longer on the table, chairperson Richard
Parsons applied a bit more grease as he told a Tuesday news conference that AOL
remained in talks with "multiple parties".
That reminds me of something my grand-pappy used to say.
"Nevër fight with a pig Jim, never fight with a pig." To this day I
have no idea what he meant, but the expression is stuck in my head. Perhaps he
simply had the family trait of foresight as he died years before the public even
considered personal computers. You see; AOL's Board of Directors might have
actually initiated the greased pig contest as a front in another fight they are
facing with Ichan while, at the same time, playing Google, Microsoft and Yahoo
off against each other in order to force a stronger settlement from one or more
of them. Pigs are said to be one of the brightest four legged animals and, at
the end of the day, this one has behaved beyond expectations and provided a
captive audience with the greatest greased pig catching contest of all time. Yee
Haw.
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About the author:
Jim Hedger is a writer, speaker and search engine marketing
expert based in Victoria BC. Jim writes and edits full-time for StepForth and is
also an editor for the Internet Search Engine Database. He has worked as an SEO
for over 5 years and welcomes the opportunïty to share his experience through
interviews, articles and speaking engagements. He can be reached at
jimhedger@stepforth.com
Article found at http://www.sitepronews.com
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